tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1346149623896479908.post267107656953723435..comments2021-07-14T03:47:20.739-04:00Comments on Sabermetrics Suck: In Defense of: Ruben AmaroCutterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11130197680454482767noreply@blogger.comBlogger41125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1346149623896479908.post-62370467145143499472013-09-11T08:30:09.244-04:002013-09-11T08:30:09.244-04:00What exactly do you take issue with? What exactly do you take issue with? Cutterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11130197680454482767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1346149623896479908.post-82062986426400941902013-09-11T04:13:01.048-04:002013-09-11T04:13:01.048-04:00"In return, the A's received several high..."In return, the A's received several highly touted prospects and were the beneficiaries of many high draft picks. Yet, the team went five years without a winning record." <br /><br />"I'll say that it takes a lot less time to rebuild a pool of minor league prospects than it does to build a core of major league talent capable of winning."<br /><br />Annnnndddd that's where I stopped reading. Nice try though. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06618599931379789362noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1346149623896479908.post-70775733885124433652013-01-28T16:59:56.130-05:002013-01-28T16:59:56.130-05:00What is the purpose of negotiating a contract 2 ye...What is the purpose of negotiating a contract 2 years prior to a player hitting the open market, if said contract is going to be at or above market rate. If you are going to pay market rate, why would you guarantee it so early? Also, Pujols and Fielder were going to hit the market at the same time, so again, if you were going to pay market value, why not at least weigh your options?<br /><br />Whether Cliff was not going to resign at a reasonable rate (in Ruben's eyes at least), why rush the trade? There was plenty of interest in him, so why settle for some mediocre prospects. As can be seen, when Seattle turned him for Smoak a few months later, better prospects could have been had. (Granted, Smoak has not played out, but at the time of the trade, Smoak was much more heralded than what we returned). <br /><br />This is also not Amaro's first overpay for a closer. You will recall that before Papelbon's crazy salary got thrown on the books, Brad Lidge was making the exact same thing annually, but he was given it 3 years before, in a cheaper, less deep market. AnotherPhillyPhanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08060836580975114027noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1346149623896479908.post-12806039425216065862013-01-28T16:28:51.967-05:002013-01-28T16:28:51.967-05:00After reading this article, I don't think I co...After reading this article, I don't think I could read another.KGEichhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17573787661236304639noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1346149623896479908.post-63641686764383517852013-01-28T16:26:14.186-05:002013-01-28T16:26:14.186-05:00Funny you should mention that. You should check o...Funny you should mention that. You should check out what I wrote about gay marriage:<br /><br />http://thecutterrambles.wordpress.com/2012/12/19/the-cutters-guide-to-fixing-america-gay-marriage/Cutterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11130197680454482767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1346149623896479908.post-92096509756229210962013-01-28T15:59:53.909-05:002013-01-28T15:59:53.909-05:00At this point, there's really nothing Ruben ha...At this point, there's really nothing Ruben has done that you can objectively defend, with the possible exceptions of the Halladay & Revere trades (I'll add the Michael Young trade to that too, since no more Josh Lindblom, but that's not being objective.) The Hunter Pence trade was bad, as were the Cole Hamels signing*, the Ryan Howard extension, & the Jonathan Papelbon contract (which gets a slight pass since he's actually a damn good closer), but all 3 were a case of idiocy & "Ruben wants his man no matter what it costs", unfortunately. Papelbon was also a victim of a bumbling manager, despite his save record - there were times where he should've been used & wasn't, and also the reverse.<br /><br />As far as Domonic Brown: he's been VERY poorly mismanaged for the past few years. It's ridiculous. Either keep him in the MLB or force him to be a career minor leaguer. Just make up your damn mind, Ruben.<br /><br />*Don't get me wrong, the team HAD to keep Hamels, and I am glad he's locked up for another 7 years, but I'm also not a fan of the contract length/$ amount. There's no telling what will happen to him down the road.<br /><br />-----------------------------------------------------<br /><br />As far as the minor league talent that they're still placing stock in (also including Trevor May, because why not):<br /><br />Tyson Gillies: Missed most of the 2011 season if I remember right, and had maturity issues this past season (plus he's a complete idiot in general)<br /><br />Jonathan Pettibone: Likely sees the MLB in September 2013. No idea when he becomes a full-time MLB starter though.<br /><br />Jesse Biddle: Still a few years away, like most of the prospects remaining, if they ever make it at all.<br /><br />Sebastian Valle: sucks + Tommy Joseph has a much better upside.<br /><br />Trevor May: IF he had stayed with the Phillies, he would likely have been converted to the bullpen, but there's no shortage of minor league pitching depth in the Phillies system, whether they're in the starting rotation or a bullpen arm. Was definitely expendable.<br /><br />Cody Asche: MLB 2014 at this rate, is my guess. No way to know though.<br /><br />Aumont: I liked what I saw when he was with the Phillies, but it was a) a small sample size and b) I saw his much talked-about inconsistency...but sending a guy out there for 4-5 nights straight doesn't help.<br /><br />---------------------<br /><br />Finishing with this:<br /><br />Everything that's happened to this team since 2008 (both good and bad) has been a result of Ruben's incompetence. The 2009 WS, the Phillies ran into a better team. 2010 and 2011, there was still a chance if they just hit the damn ball. 2012, injuries or not, showed exactly how bad this team really is. Even with all of the injuries, there was no reason they couldn't have done better than they did. Two guys should NOT make that much of a difference in the lineup.Mikehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05630767549769802355noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1346149623896479908.post-29971759651158696162013-01-28T14:30:54.312-05:002013-01-28T14:30:54.312-05:00Something tells me that you may be against gay mar...Something tells me that you may be against gay marriage and women's rights as wellKGEichhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17573787661236304639noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1346149623896479908.post-30313554628503032132013-01-25T16:44:04.356-05:002013-01-25T16:44:04.356-05:00That marginal improvement can often be the differe...That marginal improvement can often be the difference in a postseason series.<br /><br />And part of the reason they acquired Pence was because he would be under club control for another two seasons. He was supposed to be a part of their core moving forward.Cutterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11130197680454482767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1346149623896479908.post-12352691296774782532013-01-25T16:42:17.298-05:002013-01-25T16:42:17.298-05:00Gillick had financial flexibility because much of ...Gillick had financial flexibility because much of the team's core was either young or unproven. For example, Howard and Hamels were still on their original deals. <br /><br />If the Phillies farm system had continued to produce players like Howard and Hamels, then maybe the team could have maintained that flexibility.<br /><br />But they did not. And if you think Gillick was so great, then tell me how many top players the farm system produce under his watch?<br /><br />Maybe Amaro could have done nothing and the team would have won. But that's far from a certainty. Would the Phillies have won the pennant in 2009 without Lee? Do they win the NL East in 2010 without Oswalt? Both moves certainly seemed to give them a better chance at winning the World Series.<br /><br />So you're going to kill the guy for trying to improve the team and give them a better chance at winning the World Series?<br /><br />The moves didn't work out, but I can't fault him for trying.Cutterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11130197680454482767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1346149623896479908.post-37476322039629372022013-01-25T16:33:06.137-05:002013-01-25T16:33:06.137-05:00But why even do that? After all, according to you...But why even do that? After all, according to you, the impact a closer makes is neglibible, and they'll win 95% of the games they are leading in the 9th anyway.<br /><br />As for similar results, just take a look at how Heath Bell (Considered by many to be the second best closer option in the 2011 offseason) did.Cutterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11130197680454482767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1346149623896479908.post-41425184949932547172013-01-25T16:18:04.462-05:002013-01-25T16:18:04.462-05:00My point is they could have found plenty of other ...My point is they could have found plenty of other closers for less than $15mm/yr and gotten similar results.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1346149623896479908.post-85355311684669423542013-01-25T16:02:08.328-05:002013-01-25T16:02:08.328-05:00Howard hasn't been worth $25m/year since the c...Howard hasn't been worth $25m/year since the contract went into effect and wasn't worth $25mm/year since!!!! You don't need to wait the rest of the contract plays out. They extended him two years before his contract was set to expire and received zero benefit. They were fine giving going through arbitration during his prime years and then gave him a monster deal when he was no longer one of the top players in the league. <br /><br />And in order to maybe get a marginal improvement in a short series, they traded two premier prospects for barely a season from Pence. And the move still didn't help them at all.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1346149623896479908.post-65404815032696630532013-01-25T15:44:48.274-05:002013-01-25T15:44:48.274-05:00I'm not saying they were. But according to yo...I'm not saying they were. But according to you, a team will win 95% of their games regardless of the closer. So why wouldn't they win 95% with Qualls?Cutterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11130197680454482767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1346149623896479908.post-39418325355756826472013-01-25T15:39:11.669-05:002013-01-25T15:39:11.669-05:00The choices definitely were not give Papelbon that...The choices definitely were not give Papelbon that enormous contract or Qualls is the closer.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1346149623896479908.post-71697369524303426832013-01-25T15:37:13.205-05:002013-01-25T15:37:13.205-05:00It's not just the results that reflect positiv...It's not just the results that reflect positively on Gillick; it's how he went about shaping the entire organization. It wasn't just the fact that Gillick's team won a WS that gives him high grades. It's the fact that he did it while giving the team financial flexibility along with keeping the deep farm system in tact. Having a steady stream of young players under cost control for a few years gives teams an amazing leg up on other teams. The Phillies don't have that as Amaro has completely depleted their system while going "all in." <br /><br />And how would it have been tough to give the team as good a shot at the title as Amaro did considering they just came off a WS win? He was handed a championship team with the core players not going anywhere. You argue has though he inherited a team that hadn't won anything recently.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1346149623896479908.post-87188821434423327462013-01-25T15:29:33.776-05:002013-01-25T15:29:33.776-05:00Maybe Papelbon got more years and dollars because ...Maybe Papelbon got more years and dollars because he was the best and most sought after closer?<br /><br />The Howard contract merits its own "in Defense of" post. And I feel it is safe to assume that had they known he would suffer a horrific injury, they wouldn't have signed him to that deal. But at the time they signed him, he had been remarkably injury free through his career.<br /><br />But anyway, let's wait to see how the rest of the contract goes before declaring it atrocious.<br /><br />Remember, for a guy who supposedly isn't that valuable, the Phillies had a tough time replacing his production, and the team performed much better after he returned.<br /><br />As for Pence, the move was reportedly done with an eye to the postseson so that opposing managers would have to make an extra bullpen move rather than just leave a lefty in for Utley and Howard.<br /><br />Over the long run, those types of things might not matter that much, but in a short series, they can have a huge impact.Cutterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11130197680454482767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1346149623896479908.post-45933856658287232652013-01-25T15:22:57.270-05:002013-01-25T15:22:57.270-05:00I am going to try and read that Posanski article t...I am going to try and read that Posanski article to further educate myself.<br /><br />But I'll ask this:<br /><br />If the Phillies hadn't signed Papelbon, and instead had Chad Qualls as their closer, do you still think they would have won 95% of the time?Cutterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11130197680454482767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1346149623896479908.post-50193838137675650162013-01-25T15:16:53.164-05:002013-01-25T15:16:53.164-05:00You don't need to know how the closer market w...You don't need to know how the closer market was going to play out because you know how it actually did play out. Papelbon got more years and significantly more money than anyone. He got one of the largest closer contracts ever and the Phillies had to give up a draft pick in the process. And despite that hefty contract he still lost 6 games.<br /><br />And we can't talk about awful deals without discussing Howard's atrocious contract or the awful Pence trade while the Phillies had a 5 game lead in the division.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1346149623896479908.post-87057371127443876942013-01-25T15:11:15.280-05:002013-01-25T15:11:15.280-05:00Declining performance? Under Amaro, the team'...Declining performance? Under Amaro, the team's win totals in the regular season increased every year for three straight years until last season. I'd say that the 2011 team was more talented than the 2008 team.<br /><br />You need to be more consistent in your arguments.<br /><br />In your Gillick/Amaro comparisons, you seem to be a "results" guy in which the end justifies the mean. <br /><br />Well Amaro made many moves which seemed to give the Phillies a chance at winning the World Series in that season.<br /><br />You might not have agreed with some of them, but it's hard to say that the Phillies' chances of winning weren't improved by the additions of Lee, Oswalt, and Pence.<br /><br />But then you criticize Amaro for putting the Phillies in worse position going forward by making these moves to win immediately.<br /><br />As for asking "Are the Phillies in better or worse shape?" It is not a simple question. <br /><br />Does the outlook for the next four years look as good as it did after the 2008 season? No, but the team has also just finished a stretch of division titles unprecedented in their history. That can't be ignored when analyzing Amaro's work.<br /><br />My point is, it would have been tough for any general manager to have given his team the same shot to win the title that Amaro did, and still be in great position going forward.<br /><br />The only way to have avoided it would have been for the minor leagues to have been supplying a steady stream of top level talent, which didn't happen, and as I've said, is a bad bet to make in general.Cutterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11130197680454482767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1346149623896479908.post-26672145876348686072013-01-25T15:10:38.512-05:002013-01-25T15:10:38.512-05:00I'm not willing to accept the point because it...I'm not willing to accept the point because it makes no sense. Regardless of who is pitching the 9th, based on the thousands of games played throughout the years, teams with an 8th inning lead win 95% of the time. If you want to try to argue that with elite pitchers, the % is higher fine. But what % are you going to argue for? 97%?<br /><br />Joe Posnanski had a piece that discussed this point. In 2010 one of the teams with the worst record when leading after 8 innings was the Texas Rangers. This despite having one of the best closers in Neftali Feliz. Go figure. Teams historically have won around 95% of games when leading no matter who is closing. What point do you want me to concede.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1346149623896479908.post-60116835194656164372013-01-25T14:49:08.945-05:002013-01-25T14:49:08.945-05:00As I mentioned, I don't have knowledge of how ...As I mentioned, I don't have knowledge of how the closer market was going to play out. Maybe Papelbon could have gotten less money later...or maybe the Marlins would have pounced at the same price.<br /><br />As for the Lee trade, it is an example of Amaro doing the opposite of what they usually criticize him for.<br /><br />And for whatever reason, Amaro seemed to believe that Lee was not going to take a below market deal to sign an extension.Cutterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11130197680454482767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1346149623896479908.post-48566030568169364682013-01-25T14:46:46.874-05:002013-01-25T14:46:46.874-05:00I don't know if you're unable to understan...I don't know if you're unable to understand my point or just unwilling to accept it.<br /><br />You can't say that teams would win 95% regardless of who the closer is because that 95% includes when the 9th inning was pitched by the team's closer.<br /><br />Now if you had data showing how teams fared when their closer pitched the 9th as opposed to when other relievers pitched the 9th (in save situations) then you might actually have a case.Cutterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11130197680454482767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1346149623896479908.post-66616862495668760402013-01-25T14:43:18.088-05:002013-01-25T14:43:18.088-05:00Why do I have to explain Gillick's thinking wh...Why do I have to explain Gillick's thinking when we can judge him based on the results? The results on Amaro are declining performance since he took over. You still have not answered how is it not Amaro's fault that they are in a tighter financial situation than they were after they won the World Series and have a much depleted farm system. Are the Phillies in better or worse shape since Amaro took over? Simple question.<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1346149623896479908.post-22980805628755352702013-01-25T14:38:36.788-05:002013-01-25T14:38:36.788-05:00Teams with any lead after 8 innings win 95% of the...Teams with any lead after 8 innings win 95% of the time. The % goes up the bigger the lead. That stat actually does the opposite of what you think - it demonstrates how the closer role has been greatly overrated since REGARDLESS of who your closer is, you're likely to win 95% of the games you lead after 8 innings. Closers today pitch 80-90 innings or so. How much impact do you think they have considering teams play over 1,400 innings?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1346149623896479908.post-32841910766851210342013-01-25T13:29:07.192-05:002013-01-25T13:29:07.192-05:00First, Amaro did not allow the market for closers ...First, Amaro did not allow the market for closers play out in the 2011/2012 hot stove season. He set the market by signing Papelbon to that five year deal. <br /><br />While I believe that a closer is a largely overrated asset I see your point. <br /><br />Second, I agree with your assertation that Amaro has extended the championship window but I believe he only did the job half way. Sure it makes sense to trade away those prospects for established veterans but then you have to replace those prospects. <br /><br />They needed to spend aggressively via the draft and international signings much the way the Yankees, Red Sox, Nationals and Pirates did before the new collective bargaining agreement came into affect in 2012. Unfortunately they did not. <br /><br />They skimped on signing bonuses in the draft and did not spent aggressively in the international market. Leaving their farm system barren. Another matter appears to be betting everything on Domonic Brown's imminent stardom. Which appears to be on life support right about now. Perhaps if they were more willing to deal him then they wouldn't have had to give up as much "lower-level" talent and might have something left in the system. <br /><br />The one deal I really take issue with is the Lee deal. It was totally unnecessary, brought back very little in return and caused a ripple affect of the Oswalt deal. That Oswalt deal further bled the system of prospects (Anthony Gose) that could have prevented some of this off season's moves (Revere). Not to mention had they just negotiated a contract extension with Lee after the 2009 season he would be making somewhat less than the $25 million/year that he ended up getting on the free agent market and they would have had him for 2010. <br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com